The shortage will be caused by the elimination of the consequences of the pandemic, as well as the problem of the aging of the staff.
A number of regional consulting agencies predict that labor shortages in the Middle East will begin in two to three years and will grow steadily over the next ten years. Such forecasts are explained by the fact that airlines are focused on eliminating the consequences of the pandemic, as well as the fact that in the region 20% of pilots are over 55 years old. It is assumed that the shortage of pilots in the Middle East could affect other regions, as the Middle East is a net importer of pilot projects.
Assumptions by local agencies are indirectly corroborated by a recent report by Boeing's Commercial Market Outlook, which says the Middle East will need about 58,000 pilots, 59,000 technicians and 106,000 crew members by 2039. The largest shortage of personnel is also promised to the Asia-Pacific region and North America. Relative equilibrium on this issue is expected in Africa, Europe and Latin America. The report notes that due to the uneven recovery of the aviation industry in a number of regions, the shortage of personnel will occur no later than 2023.
In my opinion, timely preparation for a possible shortage of pilots will be essential for the recovery of the aviation industry both in the region and globally in the coming years.
ZetAvia operates in the Middle East, Europe and Africa, transporting goods on IL-76 transport aircraft and declares that its staff is fully staffed.